W35 Weston, FL: Allegra Korpanec Davies vs Lexington Reed
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Allegra Korpanec Davies (100%) · Allegra Korpanec Davies at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Allegra Korpanec Davies
7
Allegra Korpanec Davies 100%
$4.0K
-$587.6
69.7¢ → 69¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralAllegra Korpanec Davies at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Allegra Korpanec Davies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 68.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.4K | -$482.82 | 44% 143-184 (327) |
SL SlickRick123 | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 71.4¢ | $896.54 | $715.98 | -$180.56 | 24% 147-463 (610) |
FL Flaznorp | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 74.4¢ | $304.38 | $380.16 | +$75.78 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
38 38791873984189 | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 71.1¢ | $303.15 | $317.62 | +$50.56 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 74¢ | $205.26 | $158.11 | -$47.15 | 52% 1914-1760 (3674) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 65¢ | $9.75 | $8.55 | -$1.2 | 40% 224-340 (564) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 92¢ | $7.2 | $5 | -$2.2 | 28% 148-389 (537) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$2,900.63
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$482.82
Record
44%
143-184 (327)
Invested
$896.54
Value
$715.98
PnL
-$180.56
Record
24%
147-463 (610)
Invested
$304.38
Value
$380.16
PnL
+$75.78
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$303.15
Value
$317.62
PnL
+$50.56
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$205.26
Value
$158.11
PnL
-$47.15
Record
52%
1914-1760 (3674)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$8.55
PnL
-$1.2
Record
40%
224-340 (564)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.2
Record
28%
148-389 (537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alpheclabs2
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $2.4K
SlickRick123
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $715.98
Flaznorp
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $380.16
38791873984189
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $317.62
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $158.11
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $8.55
thestingsnake
Allegra Korpanec Davies — $5