Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Miriam Bianca Bulgaru, while the market favors Kayla Cross (54%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W50 Chihuahua: Kayla Cross vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Miriam Bianca Bulgaru (63%) · Miriam Bianca Bulgaru at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Kayla Cross54¢Miriam Bianca Bulgaru46¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Consensus Traders

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$81.05

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 46.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Kayla Cross 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kayla Cross54%

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,243

Combined PnL+$79.49

Kayla Cross3 traders

Total Value$77.79

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$1.56

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru — 63%Kayla Cross — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI finzemCTR	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 38¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$99.25	— 4-2 (6)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 44.9¢	$288	$356.8	+$68.8	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
└ Miriam Bianca Bulgaru leg	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 44.9¢	$181.98	$249.39	+$67.41
└ Kayla Cross leg	Kayla Crossavg 38¢	$106.02	$107.42	+$1.4
FL FlaznorpCTR	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 59.2¢	$106.48	$84.97	-$21.51	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kayla Crossavg 59.1¢	$49.51	$49.88	+$0.37	45% 509-610 (1119)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 41¢	$30.27	$29.9	-$0.37	55% 527-431 (958)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Kayla Crossavg 62¢	$20	$19.19	-$0.81	45% 173-212 (385)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 52.7¢	$17.58	$19.07	+$1.49	52% 197-179 (376)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 38¢	$9.5	$10.13	+$0.63	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Kayla Crossavg 42¢	$6.72	$8.72	+$2	34% 222-438 (660)

finzemCTR

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$1,508.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$99.25

Record

—

4-2 (6)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$288

Value

$356.8

PnL

+$68.8

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Both legs:

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru$181.9844.9¢+$67.41

Kayla Cross$106.0238¢+$1.4

FlaznorpCTR

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$106.48

Value

$84.97

PnL

-$21.51

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kayla Cross

Invested

$49.51

Value

$49.88

PnL

+$0.37

Record

45%

509-610 (1119)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$30.27

Value

$29.9

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

glennyorkshire<$100

Kayla Cross

Invested

$20

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$0.81

Record

45%

173-212 (385)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$17.58

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$1.49

Record

52%

197-179 (376)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

thestingsnake<$100

Kayla Cross

Invested

$6.72

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$2

Record

34%

222-438 (660)

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Kayla Cross 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miriam Bianca Bulgaru wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.