Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maria Toma, while the market favors Aurora Corvi (70%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Nules: Aurora Corvi vs Maria Toma
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Toma (78%) · Maria Toma at 31¢ · $966 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Maria Toma
9
Maria Toma 78%
$965.63
$425.81
34.2¢ → 30.5¢
-11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaria Toma at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora Corvi 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR | Maria Tomaavg 25¢ | $125 | $332.5 | +$207.5 | 53% 7022-6168 (13190) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR | Maria Tomaavg 25¢ | $83.75 | $222.78 | +$139.03 | 48% 508-541 (1049) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Maria Tomaavg 68.7¢ | $200.09 | $193.79 | -$6.3 | 46% 479-564 (1043) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Maria Tomaavg 25¢ | $50 | $133 | +$83 | 37% 996-1673 (2669) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Aurora Corviavg 30¢ | $37.8 | $42.21 | +$4.41 | 55% 447-361 (808) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Maria Tomaavg 24.6¢ | $29.06 | $24.78 | -$4.28 | 48% 3192-3494 (6686) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Maria Tomaavg 67¢ | $12.28 | $12.19 | -$0.09 | 50% 1579-1603 (3182) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Maria Tomaavg 24¢ | $1.41 | $3.91 | +$2.5 | 43% 354-460 (814) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Aurora Corviavg 30¢ | $0.43 | $0.48 | +$0.05 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
Invested
$125
Value
$332.5
PnL
+$207.5
Record
53%
7022-6168 (13190)
Invested
$83.75
Value
$222.78
PnL
+$139.03
Record
48%
508-541 (1049)
Invested
$200.09
Value
$193.79
PnL
-$6.3
Record
46%
479-564 (1043)
Invested
$50
Value
$133
PnL
+$83
Record
37%
996-1673 (2669)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$42.21
PnL
+$4.41
Record
55%
447-361 (808)
Invested
$29.06
Value
$24.78
PnL
-$4.28
Record
48%
3192-3494 (6686)
Invested
$12.28
Value
$12.19
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
1579-1603 (3182)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$2.5
Record
43%
354-460 (814)
Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
CTRMaria Toma — $332.5
CandleHammerDrums
CTRMaria Toma — $222.78
omnibus-076daa
CTRMaria Toma — $193.79
topdogbigboi
CTRMaria Toma — $133
LeLynxMalynx
Aurora Corvi — $42.21
38791873984189
CTRMaria Toma — $24.78
Pan9X
CTRMaria Toma — $12.19
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
CTRMaria Toma — $3.91
Flaznorp
Aurora Corvi — $0.48