M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Sergi Perez Contri vs Matteo Gribaldo

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Sergi Perez Contri (83%) · Sergi Perez Contri at 89¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 18

Sergi Perez Contri89¢Matteo Gribaldo11¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sergi Perez Contri

Consensus Traders

Sergi Perez Contri 83%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 88.9¢

+62% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSergi Perez Contri at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sergi Perez Contri

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sergi Perez Contri89%

Matteo Gribaldo11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sergi Perez Contri10 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares10,424

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Matteo Gribaldo2 traders

Total Value$19.72

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$13.91

Sergi Perez Contri — 83%Matteo Gribaldo — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Sergi Perez Contri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSergi Perez Contri 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Sergi Perez Contri 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagent	Sergi Perez Contriavg 51.5¢	$2.2K	$3.8K	+$1.6K	43% 341-458 (799)
dips.	Sergi Perez Contriavg 52.4¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$733.1	45% 526-648 (1174)
FL Flaznorp	Sergi Perez Contriavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$463.69	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
US User7429	Sergi Perez Contriavg 50¢	$406.08	$732.57	+$326.49	33% 197-393 (590)
CI cigarettes	Sergi Perez Contriavg 56.8¢	$321.19	$469.62	+$148.44	53% 6080-5448 (11528)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Sergi Perez Contriavg 63¢	$300	$429.52	+$129.52	47% 88-101 (189)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Sergi Perez Contriavg 52¢	$127.4	$203.35	+$75.95	41% 247-360 (607)
LR lryyy	Sergi Perez Contriavg 54¢	$95.04	$146.08	+$51.04	44% 375-478 (853)
FE ferdinand2	Sergi Perez Contriavg 65¢	$79.97	$110.95	+$30.98	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Sergi Perez Contriavg 50¢	$30.63	$55.26	+$24.63	56% 88-70 (158)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Matteo Gribaldoavg 14.7¢	$5.06	$17.22	+$12.16	37% 527-907 (1434)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Matteo Gribaldoavg 15¢	$0.75	$2.5	+$1.75	32% 292-618 (910)

smithagent

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$2,156.35

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

43%

341-458 (799)

dips.

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$1,017.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$733.1

Record

45%

526-648 (1174)

Flaznorp

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$1,195.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$463.69

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

User7429

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$406.08

Value

$732.57

PnL

+$326.49

Record

33%

197-393 (590)

cigarettes

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$321.19

Value

$469.62

PnL

+$148.44

Record

53%

6080-5448 (11528)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$300

Value

$429.52

PnL

+$129.52

Record

47%

88-101 (189)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$127.4

Value

$203.35

PnL

+$75.95

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

lryyy

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$95.04

Value

$146.08

PnL

+$51.04

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

ferdinand2

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$79.97

Value

$110.95

PnL

+$30.98

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Sergi Perez Contri

Invested

$30.63

Value

$55.26

PnL

+$24.63

Record

56%

88-70 (158)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Matteo Gribaldo

Invested

$5.06

Value

$17.22

PnL

+$12.16

Record

37%

527-907 (1434)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Matteo Gribaldo

Invested

$0.75

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.75

Record

32%

292-618 (910)

Research grade

NeutralSergi Perez Contri at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sergi Perez Contri

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Sergi Perez Contri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSergi Perez Contri 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Sergi Perez Contri 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sergi Perez Contri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.