M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Mak Mikovic
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tommaso Compagnucci (100%) · Tommaso Compagnucci at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Tommaso Compagnucci
6
Tommaso Compagnucci 100%
$2.2K
-$100.45
91.7¢ → 97.2¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTommaso Compagnucci at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 91.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$55.88 | 57% 4021-3038 (7059) |
CI cigarettes | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 92¢ | $460 | $435 | -$25 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
FL Flaznorp | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 92.3¢ | $327.31 | $327.78 | +$0.48 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
38 38791873984189 | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 92.4¢ | $260.63 | $245.34 | -$15.29 | 48% 1273-1369 (2642) |
 alpheclabs2 | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 91¢ | $108.11 | $103.36 | -$4.75 | 46% 109-130 (239) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Tommaso Compagnucciavg 87¢ | $31.12 | $31.12 | +$0 | 1% 1-78 (79) |
RN1Invested
$1,148.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$55.88
Record
57%
4021-3038 (7059)
Invested
$460
Value
$435
PnL
-$25
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$327.31
Value
$327.78
PnL
+$0.48
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
Invested
$260.63
Value
$245.34
PnL
-$15.29
Record
48%
1273-1369 (2642)
alpheclabs2Invested
$108.11
Value
$103.36
PnL
-$4.75
Record
46%
109-130 (239)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$31.12
Value
$31.12
PnL
+$0
Record
1%
1-78 (79)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.