W15 Lincoln, NE: Ava Esposito Cogan vs Kristina Paskauskas
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kristina Paskauskas (64%) · Kristina Paskauskas at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Kristina Paskauskas
11
Kristina Paskauskas 64%
$5.1K
$37.23
92.3¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralKristina Paskauskas at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Kristina Paskauskasavg 92¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$64.26 | 46% 294-351 (645) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Kristina Paskauskasavg 94¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.67 | 49% 525-557 (1082) |
38 38791873984189 | Kristina Paskauskasavg 92.9¢ | $550.83 | $375.36 | -$25.54 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
CI cigarettes | Kristina Paskauskasavg 94¢ | $97.92 | $100 | +$2.08 | 53% 7113-6221 (13334) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Kristina Paskauskasavg 61.7¢ | $34.57 | $38.65 | +$4.08 | 46% 497-591 (1088) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Kristina Paskauskasavg 69¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 44% 164-206 (370) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Ava Esposito Coganavg 31¢ | $7.59 | $7.35 | -$0.24 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Ava Esposito Coganavg 48¢ | $13.44 | $4.9 | -$8.54 | 44% 661-825 (1486) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Ava Esposito Coganavg 33.8¢ | $19.43 | $3.74 | -$15.69 | 37% 1039-1757 (2796) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kristina Paskauskasavg 66¢ | $2.53 | $2.64 | +$0.11 | 50% 1593-1619 (3212) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Ava Esposito Coganavg 12¢ | $0.61 | $0.66 | +$0.05 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$2,955.96
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$64.26
Record
46%
294-351 (645)
Invested
$1,566.67
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.67
Record
49%
525-557 (1082)
Invested
$550.83
Value
$375.36
PnL
-$25.54
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$97.92
Value
$100
PnL
+$2.08
Record
53%
7113-6221 (13334)
Invested
$34.57
Value
$38.65
PnL
+$4.08
Record
46%
497-591 (1088)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
164-206 (370)
Invested
$7.59
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$0.24
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$8.54
Record
44%
661-825 (1486)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$15.69
Record
37%
1039-1757 (2796)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
1593-1619 (3212)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alpheclabs2
Kristina Paskauskas — $3.0K
CandleHammerDrums
Kristina Paskauskas — $1.6K
38791873984189
Kristina Paskauskas — $375.36
cigarettes
Kristina Paskauskas — $100
omnibus-076daa
Kristina Paskauskas — $38.65
glennyorkshire
Kristina Paskauskas — $10
Flaznorp
CTRAva Esposito Cogan — $7.35
smithagent
CTRAva Esposito Cogan — $4.9
topdogbigboi
CTRAva Esposito Cogan — $3.74
Pan9X
Kristina Paskauskas — $2.64