W50 Heraklion: Carlota Martinez Cirez vs Daria Yesypchuk
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Carlota Martinez Cirez (38%) · Carlota Martinez Cirez at 100¢ · $643 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Carlota Martinez Cirez
8
Carlota Martinez Cirez 38%
$642.68
-$55.46
70.2¢ → 100¢
+42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarlota Martinez Cirez at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Carlota Martinez Cirezavg 66¢ | $269.9 | $380.53 | +$110.63 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
CI cigarettes | Carlota Martinez Cirezavg 77.7¢ | $116.5 | $149.93 | +$33.43 | 53% 22496-19712 (42208) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Daria Yesypchukavg 31.9¢ | $209.04 | $49.12 | -$159.91 | 46% 1383-1634 (3017) |
 RN1<$100 | Carlota Martinez Cirezavg 81¢ | $40.8 | $42.31 | +$1.51 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Daria Yesypchukavg 19.8¢ | $14.67 | $12.26 | -$2.41 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Daria Yesypchukavg 24.1¢ | $24.34 | $7.8 | -$13.09 | 60% 4339-2910 (7249) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Daria Yesypchukavg 8¢ | $0.59 | $0.55 | -$0.04 | 47% 11065-12394 (23459) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Daria Yesypchukavg 7¢ | $25.76 | $0.18 | -$25.58 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
Invested
$269.9
Value
$380.53
PnL
+$110.63
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$116.5
Value
$149.93
PnL
+$33.43
Record
53%
22496-19712 (42208)
Invested
$209.04
Value
$49.12
PnL
-$159.91
Record
46%
1383-1634 (3017)
RN1<$100Invested
$40.8
Value
$42.31
PnL
+$1.51
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$14.67
Value
$12.26
PnL
-$2.41
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$24.34
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$13.09
Record
60%
4339-2910 (7249)
Invested
$0.59
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.04
Record
47%
11065-12394 (23459)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$25.58
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Carlota Martinez Cirez — $380.53
cigarettes
Carlota Martinez Cirez — $149.93
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRDaria Yesypchuk — $49.12
RN1
Carlota Martinez Cirez — $42.31
omnibus-076daa
CTRDaria Yesypchuk — $12.26
thestingsnake
CTRDaria Yesypchuk — $7.8
topdogbigboi
CTRDaria Yesypchuk — $0.55
38791873984189
CTRDaria Yesypchuk — $0.18