W50 Heraklion: Deborah Chiesa vs Sarah Van Emst
2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Deborah Chiesa (20%) · Deborah Chiesa at 69¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Deborah Chiesa
10
Deborah Chiesa 20%
$11.1K
$547.19
64.9¢ → 69¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDeborah Chiesa at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Deborah Chiesaavg 64.9¢ | $7.6K | $8.0K | +$423.97 | 76% 50-16 (66) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 39¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$137.5 | 51% 902-852 (1754) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 30.6¢ | $364.96 | $375.94 | +$10.98 | 49% 14281-14984 (29265) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.4¢ | $331.08 | $308.57 | -$22.51 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 31.4¢ | $64.4 | $64.6 | +$0.2 | 57% 12169-9271 (21440) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Deborah Chiesaavg 69¢ | $21.04 | $20.01 | -$1.03 | 50% 20647-20936 (41583) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 32.1¢ | $15.71 | $14.46 | -$1.26 | 51% 1084-1025 (2109) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.1¢ | $8.11 | $7.35 | -$0.76 | 53% 1134-1025 (2159) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.1¢ | $1.65 | $1.58 | -$0.08 | 54% 1178-1008 (2186) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.58 | +$0.18 | 47% 9165-10272 (19437) |
Invested
$7,584.28
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$423.97
Record
76%
50-16 (66)
Invested
$2,145
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$137.5
Record
51%
902-852 (1754)
Invested
$364.96
Value
$375.94
PnL
+$10.98
Record
49%
14281-14984 (29265)
Invested
$331.08
Value
$308.57
PnL
-$22.51
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$64.4
Value
$64.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
57%
12169-9271 (21440)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$20.01
PnL
-$1.03
Record
50%
20647-20936 (41583)
Invested
$15.71
Value
$14.46
PnL
-$1.26
Record
51%
1084-1025 (2109)
Invested
$8.11
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$0.76
Record
53%
1134-1025 (2159)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
1178-1008 (2186)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
9165-10272 (19437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
stepanka1234
Deborah Chiesa — $8.0K
GamblingOdyssey
CTRSarah Van Emst — $2.3K
LuckyLoo
CTRSarah Van Emst — $375.94
Flaznorp
CTRSarah Van Emst — $308.57
poshposh
CTRSarah Van Emst — $64.6
omnibus-076daa
Deborah Chiesa — $20.01
MadridTime
CTRSarah Van Emst — $14.46
LightParadox
CTRSarah Van Emst — $7.35
Limousin
CTRSarah Van Emst — $1.58
lryyy
CTRSarah Van Emst — $1.58