W50 Chihuahua: Miriam Bianca Bulgaru vs Despina Papamichail

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Miriam Bianca Bulgaru (60%) · Miriam Bianca Bulgaru at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru94¢Despina Papamichail6¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Consensus Traders

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$8.32

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 93.5¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru94%

Despina Papamichail7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru6 traders

Total Value$668.51

Total Shares936

Combined PnL+$74.57

Despina Papamichail4 traders

Total Value$169.66

Total Shares384

Combined PnL-$82.89

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru — 60%Despina Papamichail — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Miriam Bianca Bulgaru. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiriam Bianca Bulgaru 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$325.5	54% 503-420 (923)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 50¢	$525	$777	+$252
└ Miriam Bianca Bulgaru leg	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 50¢	$525	$598.5	+$73.5
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 45¢	$454.43	$494.65	+$40.22	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 45¢	$315.45	$301.43	-$14.02
└ Miriam Bianca Bulgaru leg	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 41¢	$138.98	$193.22	+$54.24
CI cigarettes	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 69¢	$345	$285	-$60	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
OM omnibus-076daa	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 44¢	$90.89	$193.14	+$102.25	41% 294-417 (711)
38 38791873984189CTR	Despina Papamichailavg 57¢	$429.57	$131.33	-$81.63	48% 2306-2514 (4820)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 44¢	$45.5	$96.69	+$51.19	46% 91-109 (200)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 69.4¢	$52.8	$43.39	-$9.41	48% 357-388 (745)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 44¢	$36.66	$35.83	-$0.83	36% 556-976 (1532)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 73.8¢	$42.86	$26.94	-$14.83	31% 178-405 (583)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 43.6¢	$17.99	$23.36	+$5.37	49% 144-147 (291)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 51¢	$2.82	$2.37	-$0.44	33% 328-667 (995)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 6¢	$0.12	$0.13	+$0.01	51% 2096-2033 (4129)

NotJumpARB<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$325.5

Record

54%

503-420 (923)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$52550¢+$252

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru$52550¢+$73.5

FlaznorpARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$454.43

Value

$494.65

PnL

+$40.22

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$315.4545¢-$14.02

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru$138.9841¢+$54.24

cigarettes

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$345

Value

$285

PnL

-$60

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

omnibus-076daa

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$90.89

Value

$193.14

PnL

+$102.25

Record

41%

294-417 (711)

38791873984189CTR

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$429.57

Value

$131.33

PnL

-$81.63

Record

48%

2306-2514 (4820)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$45.5

Value

$96.69

PnL

+$51.19

Record

46%

91-109 (200)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$52.8

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$9.41

Record

48%

357-388 (745)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$36.66

Value

$35.83

PnL

-$0.83

Record

36%

556-976 (1532)

thestingsnake<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$42.86

Value

$26.94

PnL

-$14.83

Record

31%

178-405 (583)

Eulhunter<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$17.99

Value

$23.36

PnL

+$5.37

Record

49%

144-147 (291)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.44

Record

33%

328-667 (995)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

2096-2033 (4129)

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Miriam Bianca Bulgaru. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiriam Bianca Bulgaru 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miriam Bianca Bulgaru wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.