W35 Weston, FL: Arina Bulatova vs Ava Catanzarite
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ava Catanzarite (75%) · Ava Catanzarite at 72¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Ava Catanzarite
4
Ava Catanzarite 75%
1 arb excluded
$135.47
$17.89
Research grade
NeutralAva Catanzarite at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Ava Catanzarite. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Ava Catanzariteavg 56¢ | $45.89 | $57.42 | +$11.53 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Ava Catanzariteavg 57¢ | $49.98 | $51 | +$1.02 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
| └ Ava Catanzarite leg | Ava Catanzariteavg 57¢ | $29.07 | $30.09 | +$1.02 | |
| └ Arina Bulatova leg | Arina Bulatovaavg 41¢ | $20.91 | $20.91 | +$0 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Ava Catanzariteavg 37¢ | $11.74 | $17.45 | +$5.71 | 31% 390-873 (1263) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Ava Catanzariteavg 38¢ | $3.8 | $5.5 | +$1.7 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Arina Bulatovaavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | $4.1 | -$1.05 | 50% 107-108 (215) |
Invested
$45.89
Value
$57.42
PnL
+$11.53
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$51
PnL
+$1.02
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.74
Value
$17.45
PnL
+$5.71
Record
31%
390-873 (1263)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
107-108 (215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.