W15 Paris: Isis Louise Van den Broek vs Chelsea Fontenel

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea Fontenel (50%) · Chelsea Fontenel at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Isis Louise Van den Broek34¢Chelsea Fontenel66¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chelsea Fontenel

Consensus Traders

Chelsea Fontenel 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$110.67

Smart Money Entry

29.6¢ → 66¢

+123% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralChelsea Fontenel at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea Fontenel

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Isis Louise Van den Broek34%

Chelsea Fontenel66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chelsea Fontenel4 traders

Total Value$416.91

Total Shares812

Combined PnL+$110.34

Isis Louise Van den Broek4 traders

Total Value$73.27

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$0.33

Chelsea Fontenel — 50%Isis Louise Van den Broek — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.5	52% 812-742 (1554)
└ Isis Louise Van den Broek leg	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 50¢	$525	$682.5	+$157.5
└ Chelsea Fontenel leg	Chelsea Fontenelavg 50¢	$525	$378	-$147
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 52.5¢	$635.33	$351.87	-$283.46	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ Isis Louise Van den Broek leg	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 52.5¢	$569.96	$228.17	-$341.79
└ Chelsea Fontenel leg	Chelsea Fontenelavg 41.7¢	$65.37	$123.7	+$58.33
RN1	Chelsea Fontenelavg 14.9¢	$154.56	$264.61	+$110.05	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Chelsea Fontenelavg 87¢	$120.03	$120.03	+$0	46% 134-156 (290)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 21.3¢	$51.58	$45.97	-$5.61	48% 509-544 (1053)
SM smithagent<$100	Chelsea Fontenelavg 61¢	$29.02	$28.32	-$0.7	45% 651-808 (1459)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 86¢	$11.99	$9.27	-$2.72	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 22¢	$14.03	$9.26	+$9.61	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Isis Louise Van den Broekavg 72¢	$9.72	$8.77	-$0.95	46% 483-572 (1055)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Chelsea Fontenelavg 27¢	$2.96	$3.95	+$0.99	56% 461-367 (828)

NotJumpARB<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

Both legs:

Isis Louise Van den Broek$52550¢+$157.5

Chelsea Fontenel$52550¢-$147

FlaznorpARB<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$635.33

Value

$351.87

PnL

-$283.46

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

Isis Louise Van den Broek$569.9652.5¢-$341.79

Chelsea Fontenel$65.3741.7¢+$58.33

RN1

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$154.56

Value

$264.61

PnL

+$110.05

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$120.03

Value

$120.03

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

134-156 (290)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$51.58

Value

$45.97

PnL

-$5.61

Record

48%

509-544 (1053)

smithagent<$100

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$29.02

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$0.7

Record

45%

651-808 (1459)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$11.99

Value

$9.27

PnL

-$2.72

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$14.03

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$9.61

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Isis Louise Van den Broek

Invested

$9.72

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.95

Record

46%

483-572 (1055)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

Research grade

NeutralChelsea Fontenel at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea Fontenel

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chelsea Fontenel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.