W75 Brisbane: Savannah Broadus vs Maddison Inglis
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maddison Inglis (60%) · Maddison Inglis at 93¢ · $516 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Maddison Inglis
5
Maddison Inglis 60%
$515.59
$96.09
71.2¢ → 92.5¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaddison Inglis at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Maddison Inglis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Maddison Inglisavg 71.3¢ | $288.73 | $363.08 | +$74.35 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 71¢ | $49.38 | $58.67 | +$9.29 | 20% 93-362 (455) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Savannah Broadusavg 18.2¢ | $38.09 | $49.51 | +$12.23 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Savannah Broadusavg 24¢ | $39.89 | $39.89 | -$0 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 70.5¢ | $4.21 | $4.44 | +$0.23 | 50% 82-83 (165) |
Invested
$288.73
Value
$363.08
PnL
+$74.35
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$49.38
Value
$58.67
PnL
+$9.29
Record
20%
93-362 (455)
Invested
$38.09
Value
$49.51
PnL
+$12.23
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$39.89
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
82-83 (165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.