W35 Weston, FL: Cadence Brace vs Carolina Gomez
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cadence Brace (17%) · Cadence Brace at 91¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Cadence Brace
6
Cadence Brace 17%
$571.06
-$97.43
Research grade
NeutralCadence Brace at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Cadence Braceavg 87¢ | $340.7 | $354.41 | +$13.71 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
A6 0xa6de...256cCTR | Carolina Gomezavg 14¢ | $198.68 | $134.82 | -$63.86 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Carolina Gomezavg 15¢ | $42.45 | $26.89 | -$15.57 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Carolina Gomezavg 15¢ | $41.55 | $26.32 | -$15.23 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Carolina Gomezavg 15¢ | $40.95 | $25.94 | -$15.02 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Carolina Gomezavg 14.6¢ | $4.16 | $2.7 | -$1.46 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
Invested
$340.7
Value
$354.41
PnL
+$13.71
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$198.68
Value
$134.82
PnL
-$63.86
Record
—
Invested
$42.45
Value
$26.89
PnL
-$15.57
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$41.55
Value
$26.32
PnL
-$15.23
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$25.94
PnL
-$15.02
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$1.46
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.