W35 Weston, FL: Cadence Brace vs Rachel Gailis

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Rachel Gailis (50%) · Rachel Gailis at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Cadence Brace42¢Rachel Gailis58¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rachel Gailis

Consensus Traders

Rachel Gailis 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$88.19

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 58.5¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cadence Brace42%

Rachel Gailis59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rachel Gailis6 traders

Total Value$524.75

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$94.36

Cadence Brace6 traders

Total Value$406.84

Total Shares721

Combined PnL-$6.18

Rachel Gailis — 50%Cadence Brace — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rachel Gailis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cadence Brace) and the top 1000 (12 on Rachel Gailis) disagree here.

ctrRachel Gailis 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCadence Brace 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rachel Gailis 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$1.1K	$997.5	-$52.5	54% 475-399 (874)
└ Cadence Brace leg	Cadence Braceavg 50¢	$525	$546	+$21
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$525	$451.5	-$73.5
OM omnibus-076daa	Rachel Gailisavg 43¢	$352.7	$438.82	+$86.12	42% 291-408 (699)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Cadence Braceavg 57¢	$189.56	$187.9	-$1.66	48% 350-384 (734)
RN1CTR	Cadence Braceavg 57¢	$148.2	$146.9	-$1.3	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cadence Braceavg 58.3¢	$54.83	$53.11	-$1.72	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 42¢	$50.69	$52.5	+$1.81	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
VE Venusian<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 35¢	$13.71	$16.84	+$3.13	32% 542-1134 (1676)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Cadence Braceavg 63¢	$10	$8.25	-$1.75	44% 102-128 (230)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Cadence Braceavg 52¢	$6.36	$6.91	+$0.55	42% 353-481 (834)
LI LightParadox<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 35¢	$4.8	$5.9	+$1.1	33% 556-1141 (1697)
MA MadridTime<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 36¢	$4.81	$5.75	+$0.94	34% 564-1116 (1680)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 32¢	$3.68	$4.94	+$1.26	52% 192-174 (366)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Cadence Braceavg 61¢	$4.07	$3.77	-$0.3	41% 265-378 (643)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$1,050

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

Cadence Brace$52550¢+$21

Rachel Gailis$52550¢-$73.5

omnibus-076daa

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$352.7

Value

$438.82

PnL

+$86.12

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Cadence Brace

Invested

$189.56

Value

$187.9

PnL

-$1.66

Record

48%

350-384 (734)

RN1CTR

Cadence Brace

Invested

$148.2

Value

$146.9

PnL

-$1.3

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cadence Brace

Invested

$54.83

Value

$53.11

PnL

-$1.72

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Flaznorp<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$50.69

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$1.81

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Venusian<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$13.71

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$3.13

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Cadence Brace

Invested

$10

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

44%

102-128 (230)

smithagentCTR<$100

Cadence Brace

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0.55

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

LightParadox<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$1.1

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

MadridTime<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$4.81

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.94

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$3.68

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$1.26

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Cadence Brace

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.3

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rachel Gailis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cadence Brace) and the top 1000 (12 on Rachel Gailis) disagree here.

ctrRachel Gailis 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCadence Brace 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rachel Gailis 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rachel Gailis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.