Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lea Boskovic, while the market favors Weronika Ewald (70%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Liberec: Lea Boskovic vs Weronika Ewald

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lea Boskovic (29%) · Lea Boskovic at 30¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Lea Boskovic30¢Weronika Ewald70¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lea Boskovic

Consensus Traders

Lea Boskovic 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$165.34

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 30¢

-40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLea Boskovic at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lea Boskovic

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Weronika Ewald 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lea Boskovic30%

Weronika Ewald70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lea Boskovic2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,478

Combined PnL-$600.9

Weronika Ewald5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,055

Combined PnL+$766.24

Lea Boskovic — 29%Weronika Ewald — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Lea Boskovicavg 50.2¢	$5.8K	$5.2K	-$601.38	50% 549-553 (1102)
FL Flaznorp	Weronika Ewaldavg 50.5¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$584.09	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
RN1	Weronika Ewaldavg 50.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$123.05	53% 62265-54490 (116755)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Weronika Ewaldavg 51.8¢	$288.44	$312.13	+$23.69	46% 1775-2086 (3861)
38 38791873984189	Weronika Ewaldavg 54¢	$256.33	$266.6	+$41.53	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Weronika Ewaldavg 48.2¢	$169.34	$163.22	-$6.13	54% 3505-3037 (6542)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Weronika Ewaldavg 71¢	$147.21	$143.01	-$4.2	50% 21530-21816 (43346)
└ Weronika Ewald leg	Weronika Ewaldavg 71¢	$110.81	$109.95	-$0.86
└ Lea Boskovic leg	Lea Boskovicavg 32.5¢	$36.4	$33.06	-$3.34
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lea Boskovicavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.13	+$0.48	50% 26374-25995 (52369)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Lea Boskovic

Invested

$5,764.09

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$601.38

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

Flaznorp

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$1,541.05

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$584.09

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

RN1

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$1,660.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$123.05

Record

53%

62265-54490 (116755)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$288.44

Value

$312.13

PnL

+$23.69

Record

46%

1775-2086 (3861)

38791873984189

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$256.33

Value

$266.6

PnL

+$41.53

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$169.34

Value

$163.22

PnL

-$6.13

Record

54%

3505-3037 (6542)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Weronika Ewald

Invested

$147.21

Value

$143.01

PnL

-$4.2

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

Both legs:

Weronika Ewald$110.8171¢-$0.86

Lea Boskovic$36.432.5¢-$3.34

sentrioCTR<$100

Lea Boskovic

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

Research grade

NeutralLea Boskovic at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lea Boskovic

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Weronika Ewald 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lea Boskovic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.