Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Angelica Raggi, while the market favors Angela Fita Boluda (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Heraklion: Angela Fita Boluda vs Angelica Raggi

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Angelica Raggi (63%) · Angelica Raggi at 0.1¢ · $253 held · ends Nov 11

Angela Fita Boluda>99¢Angelica Raggi<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Angelica Raggi

Consensus Traders

Angelica Raggi 63%

Total Value

$253.2

Combined PnL

-$45.66

Smart Money Entry

21.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidAngelica Raggi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Angelica Raggi

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Angela Fita Boluda 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Angela Fita Boluda100%

Angelica Raggi0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Angela Fita Boluda3 traders

Total Value$166.43

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$9.1

Angelica Raggi5 traders

Total Value$86.77

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$54.76

Angela Fita Boluda — 38%Angelica Raggi — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 87.6¢	$71.86	$81.96	+$10.1	60% 4339-2910 (7249)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 72.8¢	$80.32	$78.9	-$1.42	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Angelica Raggiavg 20.1¢	$104.18	$48.54	-$55.63	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 28¢	$17.73	$18.05	+$0.32	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
poshposhCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 28¢	$8.5	$8.65	+$0.15	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 19.1¢	$6.67	$6.83	+$0.16	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 81¢	$5.15	$5.57	+$0.42	54% 6171-5219 (11390)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 27¢	$4.45	$4.7	+$0.25	52% 1153-1075 (2228)

thestingsnake<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$71.86

Value

$81.96

PnL

+$10.1

Record

60%

4339-2910 (7249)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$80.32

Value

$78.9

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

FlaznorpCTR

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$104.18

Value

$48.54

PnL

-$55.63

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$17.73

Value

$18.05

PnL

+$0.32

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

poshposhCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Eulhunter<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

6171-5219 (11390)

VenusianCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

Research grade

AvoidAngelica Raggi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Angelica Raggi

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Angela Fita Boluda 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Angelica Raggi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.