W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Melinda Biro vs Emese Serkedi

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Emese Serkedi (75%) · Emese Serkedi at 55¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 14

Melinda Biro46¢Emese Serkedi54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Emese Serkedi

Consensus Traders

Emese Serkedi 75%

Total Value

$138.26

Combined PnL

-$0.67

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 54.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEmese Serkedi at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Emese Serkedi

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melinda Biro46%

Emese Serkedi55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Emese Serkedi6 traders

Total Value$97.33

Total Shares199

Combined PnL-$11.43

Melinda Biro2 traders

Total Value$40.93

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$10.76

Emese Serkedi — 75%Melinda Biro — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Emese Serkediavg 51.7¢	$43.38	$39.41	-$3.97	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
Basquetipster<$100	Emese Serkediavg 75.9¢	$29.02	$23.85	-$5.17	53% 1790-1560 (3350)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Melinda Biroavg 25¢	$14.19	$23.19	+$9	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
LI LightParadox<$100	Emese Serkediavg 50.6¢	$19.5	$18.12	-$1.38	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Melinda Biroavg 41¢	$15.99	$17.75	+$1.76	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
MA MadridTime<$100	Emese Serkediavg 47.2¢	$8.14	$8.11	-$0.03	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
PA Pan9X<$100	Emese Serkediavg 60¢	$5.75	$4.51	-$1.25	54% 10365-8691 (19056)
SE sentrio<$100	Emese Serkediavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.33	+$0.38	50% 26346-25970 (52316)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$43.38

Value

$39.41

PnL

-$3.97

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Basquetipster<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$29.02

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$5.17

Record

53%

1790-1560 (3350)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Melinda Biro

Invested

$14.19

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

LightParadox<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.12

PnL

-$1.38

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Melinda Biro

Invested

$15.99

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$1.76

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

MadridTime<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$8.14

Value

$8.11

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

Pan9X<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$5.75

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

sentrio<$100

Emese Serkedi

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

Research grade

NeutralEmese Serkedi at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Emese Serkedi

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Emese Serkedi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.