W35 Heraklion: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Teodora Miron
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Ruxandra Bertea (60%) · Elena Ruxandra Bertea at 81¢ · $322 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Elena Ruxandra Bertea
5
Elena Ruxandra Bertea 60%
$322.18
-$5.94
78.6¢ → 81¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralElena Ruxandra Bertea at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Elena Ruxandra Bertea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 82¢ | $199.26 | $195.6 | -$3.65 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 69¢ | $75.18 | $84.07 | +$8.89 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Teodora Mironavg 24.6¢ | $36.25 | $24.3 | -$11.95 | 57% 4020-3036 (7056) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 79.9¢ | $12.79 | $13.28 | +$0.49 | 49% 91-96 (187) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Teodora Mironavg 16¢ | $4.64 | $4.93 | +$0.29 | 23% 109-368 (477) |
Invested
$199.26
Value
$195.6
PnL
-$3.65
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$75.18
Value
$84.07
PnL
+$8.89
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$36.25
Value
$24.3
PnL
-$11.95
Record
57%
4020-3036 (7056)
Invested
$12.79
Value
$13.28
PnL
+$0.49
Record
49%
91-96 (187)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$0.29
Record
23%
109-368 (477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.