W75 Brisbane: Eva Bennemann vs Sijia Wei
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sijia Wei (75%) · Sijia Wei at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Sijia Wei
4
Sijia Wei 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$96.22
78.3¢ → 90.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSijia Wei at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Sijia Wei. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Sijia Weiavg 78.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$154.04 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
 RN1CTR | Eva Bennemannavg 21.6¢ | $258.74 | $175.07 | -$83.67 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Sijia Weiavg 75¢ | $121.37 | $146.49 | +$25.12 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Sijia Weiavg 69¢ | $99.86 | $103.66 | +$3.81 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
| └ Sijia Wei leg | Sijia Weiavg 69¢ | $64.53 | $80.42 | +$15.9 | |
| └ Eva Bennemann leg | Eva Bennemannavg 21.3¢ | $35.33 | $23.24 | -$12.09 | |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Sijia Weiavg 87.6¢ | $21.9 | $22.63 | +$0.73 | 49% 83-87 (170) |
Invested
$1,009.34
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$154.04
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTRInvested
$258.74
Value
$175.07
PnL
-$83.67
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$121.37
Value
$146.49
PnL
+$25.12
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$99.86
Value
$103.66
PnL
+$3.81
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.9
Value
$22.63
PnL
+$0.73
Record
49%
83-87 (170)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.