Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wissam Abderrahman, while the market favors Nikita Belozertsev (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

M15 Monastir: Nikita Belozertsev vs Wissam Abderrahman

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wissam Abderrahman (50%) · Wissam Abderrahman at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Nikita Belozertsev51¢Wissam Abderrahman49¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wissam Abderrahman

Consensus Traders

Wissam Abderrahman 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$61.69

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralWissam Abderrahman at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wissam Abderrahman

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Nikita Belozertsev 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nikita Belozertsev51%

Wissam Abderrahman50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wissam Abderrahman4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,088

Combined PnL+$39.01

Nikita Belozertsev4 traders

Total Value$688.07

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$22.68

Wissam Abderrahman — 50%Nikita Belozertsev — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.CTR	Wissam Abderrahmanavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$41.16	36% 15-27 (42)
TO topdogbigboi	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48¢	$352.59	$363.6	+$11.02	38% 981-1634 (2615)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48¢	$224.04	$231.05	+$7.01	56% 444-355 (799)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Wissam Abderrahmanavg 46¢	$160.97	$159.22	-$1.75	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48¢	$125.54	$91.67	-$4.9	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
└ Nikita Belozertsev leg	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48¢	$66.68	$62.52	-$5.43
└ Wissam Abderrahman leg	Wissam Abderrahmanavg 54¢	$28.62	$29.15	+$0.53
PA Pan9X<$100	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48.2¢	$68.24	$70.11	+$1.87	50% 1551-1563 (3114)
poshposh<$100	Nikita Belozertsevavg 48¢	$20.53	$23.31	+$2.78	48% 1068-1142 (2210)
BasquetipsterCTR<$100	Wissam Abderrahmanavg 46¢	$20.51	$20.29	-$0.22	15% 14-82 (96)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Wissam Abderrahmanavg 46¢	$16.1	$15.93	-$0.18	48% 2022-2162 (4184)

0000.CTR

Wissam Abderrahman

Invested

$1,381

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$41.16

Record

36%

15-27 (42)

topdogbigboi

Nikita Belozertsev

Invested

$352.59

Value

$363.6

PnL

+$11.02

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

LeLynxMalynx

Nikita Belozertsev

Invested

$224.04

Value

$231.05

PnL

+$7.01

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

FlaznorpCTR

Wissam Abderrahman

Invested

$160.97

Value

$159.22

PnL

-$1.75

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nikita Belozertsev

Invested

$125.54

Value

$91.67

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

Both legs:

Nikita Belozertsev$66.6848¢-$5.43

Wissam Abderrahman$28.6254¢+$0.53

Pan9X<$100

Nikita Belozertsev

Invested

$68.24

Value

$70.11

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

1551-1563 (3114)

poshposh<$100

Nikita Belozertsev

Invested

$20.53

Value

$23.31

PnL

+$2.78

Record

48%

1068-1142 (2210)

BasquetipsterCTR<$100

Wissam Abderrahman

Invested

$20.51

Value

$20.29

PnL

-$0.22

Record

15%

14-82 (96)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Wissam Abderrahman

Invested

$16.1

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

2022-2162 (4184)

Research grade

NeutralWissam Abderrahman at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wissam Abderrahman

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Nikita Belozertsev 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wissam Abderrahman wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.