Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Marta Soriano Santiago, while the market favors Amarni Banks (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W15 Monastir: Amarni Banks vs Marta Soriano Santiago
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Marta Soriano Santiago (50%) · Marta Soriano Santiago at 43¢ · $799 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Marta Soriano Santiago
6
Marta Soriano Santiago 50%
$799.22
-$107.19
55.9¢ → 42.5¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMarta Soriano Santiago at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Amarni Banks 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Marta Soriano Santiagoavg 56.3¢ | $783.65 | $675.2 | -$108.45 | 50% 21108-21355 (42463) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Amarni Banksavg 66¢ | $79.2 | $80.4 | +$1.2 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Amarni Banksavg 66¢ | $16.5 | $16.75 | +$0.25 | 49% 4465-4662 (9127) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Marta Soriano Santiagoavg 59.9¢ | $8.98 | $9.9 | +$0.92 | 82% 7258-1601 (8859) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Amarni Banksavg 45¢ | $9.99 | $8.88 | -$1.11 | 48% 60760-65418 (126178) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Marta Soriano Santiagoavg 33¢ | $8.09 | $8.09 | -$0 | 47% 11665-13338 (25003) |
Invested
$783.65
Value
$675.2
PnL
-$108.45
Record
50%
21108-21355 (42463)
Invested
$79.2
Value
$80.4
PnL
+$1.2
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$16.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
4465-4662 (9127)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$8.98
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.92
Record
82%
7258-1601 (8859)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$1.11
Record
48%
60760-65418 (126178)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.09
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
11665-13338 (25003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.