M25 Guadalajara: Blu Baker vs Lorenzo Claverie

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Claverie (57%) · Lorenzo Claverie at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Blu Baker9¢Lorenzo Claverie91¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Claverie

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Claverie 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$227.02

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 91.5¢

+84% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Claverie at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Claverie

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blu Baker9%

Lorenzo Claverie92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Claverie4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,538

Combined PnL+$225.49

Blu Baker3 traders

Total Value$19.94

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$1.53

Lorenzo Claverie — 57%Blu Baker — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Claverieavg 48.9¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$88.81	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
SE sentrio	Lorenzo Claverieavg 57.8¢	$276.01	$268.98	-$7.04	50% 26188-25839 (52027)
RN1ARB<$100	Blu Bakeravg 60.6¢	$518.59	$214.58	-$304.01	53% 61880-54166 (116046)
└ Lorenzo Claverie leg	Lorenzo Claverieavg 39.8¢	$69.6	$162.7	+$93.1
└ Blu Baker leg	Blu Bakeravg 60.6¢	$448.98	$51.87	-$397.11
38 38791873984189	Lorenzo Claverieavg 47¢	$189.64	$128.33	+$97.13	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Lorenzo Claverieavg 35¢	$48.44	$63.89	+$46.59	64% 5356-2968 (8324)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blu Bakeravg 72.6¢	$42.14	$15.49	+$2.53	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Blu Bakeravg 38¢	$1.9	$2.23	+$0.33	49% 14903-15734 (30637)
US User7429CTR<$100	Blu Bakeravg 71¢	$3.55	$2.23	-$1.33	56% 9183-7323 (16506)

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$1,796.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$88.81

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

sentrio

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$276.01

Value

$268.98

PnL

-$7.04

Record

50%

26188-25839 (52027)

RN1ARB<$100

Blu Baker

Invested

$518.59

Value

$214.58

PnL

-$304.01

Record

53%

61880-54166 (116046)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Claverie$69.639.8¢+$93.1

Blu Baker$448.9860.6¢-$397.11

38791873984189

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$189.64

Value

$128.33

PnL

+$97.13

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$48.44

Value

$63.89

PnL

+$46.59

Record

64%

5356-2968 (8324)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blu Baker

Invested

$42.14

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$2.53

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Blu Baker

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

14903-15734 (30637)

User7429CTR<$100

Blu Baker

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$1.33

Record

56%

9183-7323 (16506)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Claverie at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Claverie

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Claverie wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.