W75 Brisbane: Naiktha Bains vs Zhuoxuan Bai
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Zhuoxuan Bai (29%) · Zhuoxuan Bai at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Zhuoxuan Bai
7
Zhuoxuan Bai 29%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$8.73
61.6¢ → 54¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralZhuoxuan Bai at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Zhuoxuan Bai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Zhuoxuan Baiavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 55% 367-301 (668) |
| └ Zhuoxuan Bai leg | Zhuoxuan Baiavg 50¢ | $525 | $567 | +$42 | |
| └ Naiktha Bains leg | Naiktha Bainsavg 50¢ | $525 | $483 | -$42 | |
FL Flaznorp | Zhuoxuan Baiavg 61.2¢ | $120.15 | $110.52 | -$9.63 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 46¢ | $23.04 | $23.04 | +$0 | 45% 436-533 (969) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 46¢ | $12.88 | $12.88 | -$0 | 42% 282-393 (675) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 46¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | -$0 | 28% 145-377 (522) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 36¢ | $3.24 | $4.14 | +$0.9 | 50% 72-72 (144) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Zhuoxuan Baiavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $2.7 | -$1 | 44% 143-184 (327) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $2.3 | +$1 | 50% 120-122 (242) |
Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
367-301 (668)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.15
Value
$110.52
PnL
-$9.63
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$23.04
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
436-533 (969)
Invested
$12.88
Value
$12.88
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
282-393 (675)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
145-377 (522)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.9
Record
50%
72-72 (144)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$1
Record
44%
143-184 (327)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
120-122 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.