W75 Brisbane: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Carol Young Suh Lee

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Carol Young Suh Lee (50%) · Carol Young Suh Lee at 76¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 21

Zhuoxuan Bai24¢Carol Young Suh Lee76¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carol Young Suh Lee

Consensus Traders

Carol Young Suh Lee 50%

Total Value

$301.31

Combined PnL

-$7.39

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 76¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarol Young Suh Lee at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carol Young Suh Lee

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Zhuoxuan Bai24%

Carol Young Suh Lee76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carol Young Suh Lee5 traders

Total Value$218.43

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$9.85

Zhuoxuan Bai5 traders

Total Value$82.87

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$17.24

Carol Young Suh Lee — 50%Zhuoxuan Bai — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Carol Young Suh Lee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Carol Young Suh Lee 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 56.8¢	$164.63	$180.09	+$15.47	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 36¢	$35.19	$34.7	-$0.49	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 38.5¢	$69.3	$28.2	-$18	33% 211-429 (640)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 61.8¢	$25.79	$16.29	-$9.5	45% 445-541 (986)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 37.3¢	$9.25	$14.68	+$5.43	51% 180-175 (355)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 43¢	$10	$10.46	+$0.46	45% 151-185 (336)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 38¢	$4.23	$5.01	+$0.78	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
PA Pan9X<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 59¢	$7.44	$4.92	-$2.52	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	44% 600-749 (1349)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 33¢	$1.48	$2.46	+$0.99	37% 841-1416 (2257)

38791873984189

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$164.63

Value

$180.09

PnL

+$15.47

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$35.19

Value

$34.7

PnL

-$0.49

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$69.3

Value

$28.2

PnL

-$18

Record

33%

211-429 (640)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$25.79

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$9.5

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

Eulhunter<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$9.25

Value

$14.68

PnL

+$5.43

Record

51%

180-175 (355)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$10

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.46

Record

45%

151-185 (336)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$4.23

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.78

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Pan9X<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$7.44

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$2.52

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

smithagentCTR<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

600-749 (1349)

topdogbigboi<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$1.48

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.99

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Research grade

NeutralCarol Young Suh Lee at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carol Young Suh Lee

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Carol Young Suh Lee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Carol Young Suh Lee 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carol Young Suh Lee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.