W50 Heraklion: Victoria Allen vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Ruxandra Bertea (100%) · Elena Ruxandra Bertea at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Elena Ruxandra Bertea
5
Elena Ruxandra Bertea 100%
$147
$2.57
77.5¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralElena Ruxandra Bertea at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 73¢ | $78.27 | $82.59 | +$4.32 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 73¢ | $25.55 | $28.18 | +$2.63 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 90.5¢ | $19.9 | $17.71 | -$2.19 | 60% 4339-2910 (7249) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 90.5¢ | $18.09 | $16.1 | -$1.99 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 88¢ | $2.35 | $2.15 | -$0.2 | 54% 6171-5219 (11390) |
RN1<$100Invested
$78.27
Value
$82.59
PnL
+$4.32
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$28.18
PnL
+$2.63
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$17.71
PnL
-$2.19
Record
60%
4339-2910 (7249)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$1.99
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
6171-5219 (11390)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.