W15 Essen: Isabella Angelina Abendroth vs Emma Sophie Glaser
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Isabella Angelina Abendroth (29%) · Isabella Angelina Abendroth at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Isabella Angelina Abendroth
7
Isabella Angelina Abendroth 29%
$2.7K
-$58.83
70¢ → 84.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIsabella Angelina Abendroth at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Isabella Angelina Abendrothavg 70¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$87.46 | 73% 30-11 (41) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 29¢ | $199.39 | $199.39 | +$17.19 | 47% 2405-2688 (5093) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 29¢ | $102.95 | $102.95 | +$8.87 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 50¢ | $16.23 | $18.83 | +$2.6 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.75 | +$0.05 | 59% 30074-20800 (50874) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.45 | -$0.05 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Isabella Angelina Abendrothavg 69¢ | $1.38 | $1.35 | -$0.03 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$2,422.47
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$87.46
Record
73%
30-11 (41)
Invested
$199.39
Value
$199.39
PnL
+$17.19
Record
47%
2405-2688 (5093)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$102.95
Value
$102.95
PnL
+$8.87
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$2.6
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
30074-20800 (50874)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
stepanka1234
Isabella Angelina Abendroth — $2.3K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTREmma Sophie Glaser — $199.39
VeryLucky888
CTREmma Sophie Glaser — $102.95
omnibus-076daa
CTREmma Sophie Glaser — $18.83
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTREmma Sophie Glaser — $4.75
xtxpleasecallme
CTREmma Sophie Glaser — $1.45
HRTrading
Isabella Angelina Abendroth — $1.35