Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 81¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 1

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$374.52

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 80.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,497

Combined PnL-$379.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$551.51

Total Shares3,151

Combined PnL+$5.27

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 84.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$64.99	55% 17610-14530 (32140)
AN anoin123	Noavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	-$10.18	44% 552-692 (1244)
GR groth	Noavg 82.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$3.66	65% 312-170 (482)
Haradwaith	Noavg 83.3¢	$2.0K	$770.59	-$197.3	57% 41422-31202 (72624)
RA rainbowlilies	Noavg 84.8¢	$678.5	$660	-$18.5	38% 3017-4847 (7864)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 17.4¢	$494.25	$496.74	+$2.49	57% 883-673 (1556)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.3¢	$482.79	$284.4	-$77.99	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
MO Monopoly_Money	Noavg 77¢	$211.58	$226.7	+$15.11	64% 176-101 (277)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 82.7¢	$1.4K	$75.01	-$22.28	16% 1406-7535 (8941)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$62.44	$52.92	-$9.52	49% 22829-23658 (46487)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$102.5	$1.85	+$12.3	59% 1054-734 (1788)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$2,539.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$64.99

Record

55%

17610-14530 (32140)

anoin123

Invested

$1,196.8

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$10.18

Record

44%

552-692 (1244)

groth

Invested

$1,611.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$3.66

Record

65%

312-170 (482)

Haradwaith

Invested

$2,044.86

Value

$770.59

PnL

-$197.3

Record

57%

41422-31202 (72624)

rainbowlilies

Invested

$678.5

Value

$660

PnL

-$18.5

Record

38%

3017-4847 (7864)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$494.25

Value

$496.74

PnL

+$2.49

Record

57%

883-673 (1556)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$482.79

Value

$284.4

PnL

-$77.99

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

Monopoly_Money

Invested

$211.58

Value

$226.7

PnL

+$15.11

Record

64%

176-101 (277)

WarriorH

Invested

$1,361.63

Value

$75.01

PnL

-$22.28

Record

16%

1406-7535 (8941)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.44

Value

$52.92

PnL

-$9.52

Record

49%

22829-23658 (46487)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.5

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$12.3

Record

59%

1054-734 (1788)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.5%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.