Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$2.3K
$30.62
87.6¢ → 86.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter | Yesavg 88.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$1.12 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
 classified | Yesavg 86¢ | $672.06 | $696.19 | +$33.66 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 87.4¢ | $387.23 | $373 | -$2.33 | 23% 288-966 (1254) |
GH ghorrock | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $100.22 | $99.22 | -$1 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $86 | $87 | +$1 | 73% 2908-1060 (3968) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $0.29 | $0.69 | +$0.4 | 36% 15095-27224 (42319) |
Invested
$1,056.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$1.12
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
classifiedInvested
$672.06
Value
$696.19
PnL
+$33.66
Record
58%
829-603 (1432)
IstarothInvested
$387.23
Value
$373
PnL
-$2.33
Record
23%
288-966 (1254)
Invested
$100.22
Value
$99.22
PnL
-$1
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$86
Value
$87
PnL
+$1
Record
73%
2908-1060 (3968)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.4
Record
36%
15095-27224 (42319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.