Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 20?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 92¢ · $996 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$995.93
$41.65
87.2¢ → 92¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VO Votei14Voude22 | Yesavg 88.2¢ | $496 | $511.91 | +$15.91 | 0% 0-30 (30) |
RA rainbowlilies | Yesavg 86¢ | $430 | $455 | +$25 | — 0-3 (3) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $22 | $22.75 | +$0.75 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $6.28 | $5.43 | +$0.09 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $0.94 | $0.85 | -$0.09 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
Invested
$496
Value
$511.91
PnL
+$15.91
Record
0%
0-30 (30)
Invested
$430
Value
$455
PnL
+$25
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$22
Value
$22.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0.09
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.