Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 93¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$323.43
$6.18
90.1¢ → 92.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $90 | $92.5 | +$2.5 | — |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $88.74 | $92.23 | +$3.49 | 62% 162-101 (263) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $78.12 | $80.25 | +$2.13 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
VO Votei14Voude22<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $55 | $55.3 | +$0.3 | 0% 0-30 (30) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.8¢ | $5.39 | $3.16 | -$2.23 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
Invested
$90
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
—
Invested
$88.74
Value
$92.23
PnL
+$3.49
Record
62%
162-101 (263)
Invested
$78.12
Value
$80.25
PnL
+$2.13
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$55
Value
$55.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
0%
0-30 (30)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$3.16
PnL
-$2.23
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.