Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.5K
$28.74
96.1¢ → 97.7¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VO Votei14Voude22 | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$24.86 | 0% 0-30 (30) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 97.4¢ | $292.2 | $292.65 | +$0.45 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
RA rainbowlilies | Yesavg 87.2¢ | $95.38 | $106.7 | +$11.32 | — 0-3 (3) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $50.85 | $42.87 | -$7.98 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.6¢ | $0.16 | $0.25 | +$0.08 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
Invested
$2,034
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$24.86
Record
0%
0-30 (30)
Tenebrus7Invested
$292.2
Value
$292.65
PnL
+$0.45
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$95.38
Value
$106.7
PnL
+$11.32
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$50.85
Value
$42.87
PnL
-$7.98
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.