Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$10.3K
$31.12
98¢ → 97.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VO Votei14Voude22 | Yesavg 98¢ | $8.0K | $8.0K | +$29.19 | 0% 0-30 (30) |
65 65765757 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$3.1 | 0% 0-31 (31) |
LU LulaVaiPerder | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $414 | $414.86 | +$0.86 | 0% 0-33 (33) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $19.36 | $19.67 | +$0.31 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $15.08 | $13.09 | -$1.98 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.4¢ | $0.7 | $0.34 | -$0.36 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
Invested
$8,006
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$29.19
Record
0%
0-30 (30)
Invested
$1,825
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$3.1
Record
0%
0-31 (31)
Invested
$414
Value
$414.86
PnL
+$0.86
Record
0%
0-33 (33)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$19.67
PnL
+$0.31
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$15.08
Value
$13.09
PnL
-$1.98
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$0.36
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.