Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.0K
$9
59.2¢ → 55¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classifiedCTR | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $461.92 | $340.17 | +$25.24 | 58% 830-603 (1433) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $230 | $220 | -$10 | 73% 2909-1062 (3971) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 60.5¢ | $215.85 | $195.72 | -$19.56 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 41.6¢ | $218.12 | $168.28 | +$25.54 | 36% 15596-27543 (43139) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 60.2¢ | $280.81 | $109.1 | -$12.36 | 42% 5218-7151 (12369) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $8.43 | $5.04 | -$0.41 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $2.11 | $2.65 | +$0.55 | 50% 143-142 (285) |
classifiedCTRInvested
$461.92
Value
$340.17
PnL
+$25.24
Record
58%
830-603 (1433)
Tenebrus7Invested
$230
Value
$220
PnL
-$10
Record
73%
2909-1062 (3971)
IstarothInvested
$215.85
Value
$195.72
PnL
-$19.56
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Invested
$218.12
Value
$168.28
PnL
+$25.54
Record
36%
15596-27543 (43139)
Invested
$280.81
Value
$109.1
PnL
-$12.36
Record
42%
5218-7151 (12369)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.41
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
143-142 (285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.