Israel military action against Lebanon on November 8?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$1.4K
$19.64
94.2¢ → 95.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Yesavg 94.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$23.12 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $92.84 | $91.93 | -$0.91 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $23.25 | $20.33 | -$2.6 | — 0-12 (12) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 95.4¢ | $4.77 | $4.8 | +$0.03 | — 12-2 (14) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.