Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 3.5¢ · $36 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$36.32
-$23.13
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 72.4¢ | $22.82 | $23.66 | +$0.84 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $5.91 | $8.01 | +$2.1 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.2¢ | $25.54 | $3.17 | -$22.37 | 56% 48-38 (86) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $2.52 | $0.74 | -$1.79 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $0.7 | -$1.5 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $0.47 | $0.04 | -$0.43 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
Invested
$22.82
Value
$23.66
PnL
+$0.84
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$8.01
PnL
+$2.1
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$25.54
Value
$3.17
PnL
-$22.37
Record
56%
48-38 (86)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$1.79
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$1.5
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.43
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.