Israel military action against Iraq by November 30, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $236 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$235.96
$18.18
72.7¢ → 80.5¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67.3¢ | $133.73 | $161.94 | +$28.2 | 41% 3041-4429 (7470) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $63.75 | $60.38 | -$3.37 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $7.8 | $7.8 | +$0 | 15% 15-85 (100) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $24.75 | $5.85 | -$6.65 | — 1-9 (10) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.