Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 7+ seats?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$5.8K
$813.91
81.3¢ → 89.6¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm | Noavg 78¢ | $3.2K | $3.8K | +$652.74 | 65% 484-261 (745) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$123.76 | 61% 147-94 (241) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $52.38 | $55.88 | +$3.5 | 56% 15238-11766 (27004) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 40.7¢ | $8.14 | $18.82 | +$10.68 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $37.97 | $9.02 | +$23.23 | 36% 14903-27014 (41917) |
Invested
$3,163.76
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$652.74
Record
65%
484-261 (745)
Invested
$1,799.75
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$123.76
Record
61%
147-94 (241)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$52.38
Value
$55.88
PnL
+$3.5
Record
56%
15238-11766 (27004)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.14
Value
$18.82
PnL
+$10.68
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
Invested
$37.97
Value
$9.02
PnL
+$23.23
Record
36%
14903-27014 (41917)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.