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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?

Resolved No. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Yes 67%

Total Value

$95.94

Combined PnL

-$13.57

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders
Total Value$95.94
Total Shares96
Combined PnL+$2.96
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares350
Combined PnL-$16.53
No — 64%Yes — 36%
ME
merod<$100
No

Invested

$41.25

Value

$55

PnL

+$8.25

Record

43%

2778-3616 (6394)

balthazar<$100
No

Invested

$24.2

Value

$40

PnL

-$12.05

Record

55%

25937-21212 (47149)

0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100
No

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

3736-2985 (6721)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$7.73

Value

—

PnL

-$7.73

Record

53%

1541-1341 (2882)

archaic<$100
No

Invested

$68.24

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.62

Record

85%

1925-344 (2269)

E4
e46m3<$100
No

Invested

$28.03

Value

—

PnL

+$6.05

Record

72%

12196-4793 (16989)

0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100
No

Invested

$15.18

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1897-2620 (4517)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$61.25

Value

—

PnL

+$4.32

Record

35%

16923-31292 (48215)

0X
0xe312101A6EA5c00821B74e2855c2674147B2e0b2-1730831637679CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$27

Value

—

PnL

-$10.12

Record

27%

13-35 (48)

ME
melonmanmCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$3

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

65%

544-288 (832)

0X
0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccd<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-2 (6)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xa98d9abc...771f41
Slug
israel-election-bloc-seat-margin-of-victory-bibi-3-4-seats-20261021154359891

Traders in this Market

ME

merod

No — $55

+$8.25

balthazar

No — $40

-$12.05
0X

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $0.93

+$0.1

HolyMoses7

CTR

Yes — $0

-$7.73

archaic

No — $0.01

+$0.62
E4

e46m3

No — $0

+$6.05
0X

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

+$0
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

+$4.32
0X

0xe312101A6EA5c00821B74e2855c2674147B2e0b2-1730831637679

CTR

Yes — $0

-$10.12
ME

melonmanm

CTR

Yes — $0

-$3
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