Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$4.1K
-$27.02
94.4¢ → 96¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 94.3¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$41.29 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 95¢ | $400.4 | $400 | -$0.07 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
 themagicofcinema | Noavg 94.9¢ | $117.2 | $117.82 | +$0.62 | 66% 408-206 (614) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $78.82 | $12.44 | -$66.38 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.4 | $0.92 | -$2.48 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
Invested
$3,545.49
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$41.29
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
IstarothInvested
$400.4
Value
$400
PnL
-$0.07
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
themagicofcinemaInvested
$117.2
Value
$117.82
PnL
+$0.62
Record
66%
408-206 (614)
Invested
$78.82
Value
$12.44
PnL
-$66.38
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$2.48
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.