Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Beitar Jerusalem FC win on 2026-11-07?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Yes 36%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$566.23
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FI FinalOrderCTR | Yesavg 45.9¢ | $2.7K | — | $-2.7K | 46% 229-267 (496) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $2.2K | $3.6K | +$1.4K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.5¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.7K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $361.03 | — | -$361.03 | |
 RN1 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $2.1K | $3.7K | +$1.6K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $72.68 | — | -$72.68 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 50.1¢ | $518.59 | $1.0K | +$516.8 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $144.28 | $148.25 | +$3.96 | 82% 2669-597 (3266) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38¢ | $56.33 | — | -$56.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.3¢ | $87.96 | $148.25 | +$60.29 | |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $45.64 | $60 | +$14.36 | 47% 11040-12658 (23698) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 43¢ | $64.5 | $150 | +$85.5 | 75% 1985-674 (2659) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $20.25 | — | -$20.25 | 48% 5549-6067 (11616) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $27.5 | $50 | +$22.5 | 59% 33715-23828 (57543) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $9.93 | — | -$9.93 | 51% 6523-6284 (12807) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $2.37 | — | -$2.37 | 47% 1366-1547 (2913) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $3.42 | $14.26 | +$10.98 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $5 | +$3.8 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $5 | +$3.85 | 47% 9585-10702 (20287) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $0.71 | $3.23 | +$2.53 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$2,671.96
Value
—
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
46%
229-267 (496)
Invested
$2,202.38
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$2,099.44
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$72.68
Value
—
PnL
-$72.68
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$518.59
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$516.8
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$144.28
Value
$148.25
PnL
+$3.96
Record
82%
2669-597 (3266)
Both legs:
dips.<$100Invested
$45.64
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.36
Record
47%
11040-12658 (23698)
Invested
$64.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$85.5
Record
75%
1985-674 (2659)
Invested
$20.25
Value
—
PnL
-$20.25
Record
48%
5549-6067 (11616)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$22.5
Record
59%
33715-23828 (57543)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$9.93
Value
—
PnL
-$9.93
Record
51%
6523-6284 (12807)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
—
PnL
-$2.37
Record
47%
1366-1547 (2913)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$10.98
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.8
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.85
Record
47%
9585-10702 (20287)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$2.53
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
FinalOrder
CTRYes — $0
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RN1
No — $3.7K
cigarettes
CTRYes — $0
GoalLineGhost
No — $1.0K
0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dips.
No — $60
Rocky31
No — $150
SlickRick123
CTRYes — $0
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
No — $50