Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-11-08?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$9.2K
$1.0K
62.2¢ → 80¢
+29% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65¢ | $4.2K | $4.9K | +$721.87 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$187.6 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 58¢ | $762.17 | $806.63 | +$44.46 | 53% 2982-2598 (5580) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 59¢ | $756.12 | $524.91 | +$46.79 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 59¢ | $293.88 | $308.88 | +$15 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 58¢ | $320 | $214.4 | +$28.8 | 50% 65477-65792 (131269) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $97.75 | $62.07 | +$3.42 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $8.32 | $8.57 | +$0.25 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$4,203.45
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$721.87
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$2,127.17
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$187.6
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$762.17
Value
$806.63
PnL
+$44.46
Record
53%
2982-2598 (5580)
Invested
$756.12
Value
$524.91
PnL
+$46.79
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
VeryLucky888Invested
$293.88
Value
$308.88
PnL
+$15
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$320
Value
$214.4
PnL
+$28.8
Record
50%
65477-65792 (131269)
Invested
$97.75
Value
$62.07
PnL
+$3.42
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.57
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.