Will Inter Kashi FC win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $960 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$960.01
$100.73
83.9¢ → 95¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 78.4¢ | $474.72 | $574.88 | +$100.16 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 94.5¢ | $300.33 | $301.83 | +$1.5 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $35.55 | $28.85 | -$6.7 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $22.62 | $21.55 | +$3.37 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $16.48 | $18.5 | +$2.02 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $8.31 | $8.37 | +$0.06 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.65 | +$0.55 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $1.6 | $1.38 | -$0.22 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
Invested
$474.72
Value
$574.88
PnL
+$100.16
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$300.33
Value
$301.83
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$35.55
Value
$28.85
PnL
-$6.7
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$22.62
Value
$21.55
PnL
+$3.37
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$16.48
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$2.02
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$8.31
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$0.22
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.