Will Bengaluru FC win on 2026-11-06?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 69¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 6

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$324.23

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 69¢

+10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares10,733

Combined PnL+$327.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.04

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$2.96

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$95.22	51% 26319-24948 (51267)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.2¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$200.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.8¢	$965.22	$859.45	-$105.77
CI cigarettes	Noavg 61¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$280	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 63.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$19.91	50% 37964-37221 (75185)
alpheclabs2	Noavg 60.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$77.36	47% 1300-1465 (2765)
LI Limousin	Noavg 66.1¢	$503.82	$487.69	-$16.13	51% 1640-1550 (3190)
VE Venusian	Noavg 66.2¢	$364.95	$352.88	-$12.06	49% 1598-1632 (3230)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 65.3¢	$337.69	$331.17	-$6.52	49% 1540-1624 (3164)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 68¢	$267.88	$252.12	-$15.76	49% 14849-15643 (30492)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$93.43	$89.89	-$3.54	50% 26091-25752 (51843)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$58.04	$56.24	-$1.8	47% 10792-12349 (23141)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$31.31	$32.98	+$1.67	59% 33082-23251 (56333)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 61¢	$27.45	$28.8	+$1.35	64% 5323-2945 (8268)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$20.96	$19.8	-$1.16	53% 2617-2311 (4928)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 61¢	$34.94	$17.46	+$1.98	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$11.78	$10.76	-$1.02	50% 21358-21635 (42993)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$3.26	$3.2	-$0.06	50% 1585-1603 (3188)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,650.62

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$95.22

Record

51%

26319-24948 (51267)

Both legs:

No$2,685.464.2¢+$200.98

Yes$965.2234.8¢-$105.77

cigarettes

Invested

$2,135

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$280

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,733.43

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$19.91

Record

50%

37964-37221 (75185)

alpheclabs2

Invested

$1,221.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$77.36

Record

47%

1300-1465 (2765)

Limousin

Invested

$503.82

Value

$487.69

PnL

-$16.13

Record

51%

1640-1550 (3190)

Venusian

Invested

$364.95

Value

$352.88

PnL

-$12.06

Record

49%

1598-1632 (3230)

MadridTime

Invested

$337.69

Value

$331.17

PnL

-$6.52

Record

49%

1540-1624 (3164)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$267.88

Value

$252.12

PnL

-$15.76

Record

49%

14849-15643 (30492)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$93.43

Value

$89.89

PnL

-$3.54

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.04

Value

$56.24

PnL

-$1.8

Record

47%

10792-12349 (23141)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$31.31

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$1.67

Record

59%

33082-23251 (56333)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$1.35

Record

64%

5323-2945 (8268)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.96

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

2617-2311 (4928)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$34.94

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

21358-21635 (42993)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

1585-1603 (3188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.