Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will North East United FC win on 2026-11-05?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$44.32
-$0.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $15.11 | $15.18 | +$0.06 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $9.66 | $9.56 | -$0.1 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $7.03 | $6.86 | -$0.17 | 52% 1149-1045 (2194) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 49.2¢ | $5.28 | $5.27 | -$0.02 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $4.82 | $4.9 | +$0.08 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
Invested
$15.11
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$0.06
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$6.86
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
1149-1045 (2194)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.27
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
Invested
$4.82
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.