Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
$162.5
59.4¢ → 84¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
3183h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 61.7¢ | $722.02 | $947.7 | +$260.78 | 68% 319-150 (469) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $474.57 | $244.41 | -$143.21 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $76.37 | $139.3 | +$62.94 | 72% 1532-585 (2117) |
18 1881aaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $27.18 | $9.58 | -$18.16 | 71% 376-150 (526) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 35.7¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | +$0.15 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
alanhuttonInvested
$722.02
Value
$947.7
PnL
+$260.78
Record
68%
319-150 (469)
Invested
$474.57
Value
$244.41
PnL
-$143.21
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
Invested
$76.37
Value
$139.3
PnL
+$62.94
Record
72%
1532-585 (2117)
Invested
$27.18
Value
$9.58
PnL
-$18.16
Record
71%
376-150 (526)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.