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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$346.92
76.5¢ → 72.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 71.7¢ | $2.1K | $1.3K | -$65.73 | 74% 2727-977 (3704) |
 tetrase | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$313.31 | 60% 805-538 (1343) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $677.37 | $670.75 | -$3.82 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80¢ | $536.9 | $425.93 | -$110.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $137.34 | $244.83 | +$107.16 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 85.2¢ | $268 | $264 | -$4 | 56% 15306-11848 (27154) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $391.88 | $64.77 | +$36.12 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
viniiInvested
$2,074.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$65.73
Record
74%
2727-977 (3704)
tetraseInvested
$1,542.02
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$313.31
Record
60%
805-538 (1343)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$677.37
Value
$670.75
PnL
-$3.82
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$268
Value
$264
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
15306-11848 (27154)
Invested
$391.88
Value
$64.77
PnL
+$36.12
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.