Borneo Samarinda vs. PSM Makassar: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 58¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$4.8K
$477.85
49.9¢ → 58¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 51.2¢ | $2.7K | $3.4K | +$730.87 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 44¢ | $462.38 | $661.2 | +$198.82 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Overavg 43.1¢ | $1.1K | $630.24 | -$456.76 | 33% 1168-2399 (3567) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 36.7¢ | $9.79 | $19.99 | +$10.2 | 53% 62287-54524 (116811) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $9.99 | $4.71 | -$5.28 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
Invested
$2,704.9
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$730.87
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$462.38
Value
$661.2
PnL
+$198.82
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$1,087.01
Value
$630.24
PnL
-$456.76
Record
33%
1168-2399 (3567)
RN1<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$10.2
Record
53%
62287-54524 (116811)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$5.28
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.