Will PSM Makassar win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.0K
$451.31
93.3¢ → 95.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 94¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.42 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$48.42 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$204.26 | 53% 62265-54490 (116755) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $274.17 | $872.87 | +$598.7 | 33% 1167-2395 (3562) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $3.24 | $3.28 | +$0.04 | 51% 6508-6274 (12782) |
Invested
$1,537.89
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.42
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$1,355.05
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$48.42
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
RN1Invested
$1,371.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$204.26
Record
53%
62265-54490 (116755)
Invested
$274.17
Value
$872.87
PnL
+$598.7
Record
33%
1167-2395 (3562)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
6508-6274 (12782)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.