Will Borneo Samarinda vs. PSM Makassar end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.1K
$142.35
81¢ → 52.5¢
-35% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $790.78 | $1.3K | +$469.22 | 33% 1167-2395 (3562) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$223.03 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
 RN1 | Noavg 81¢ | $699.67 | $591.7 | -$107.97 | 53% 62265-54490 (116755) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $17.99 | $21.59 | +$3.6 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $0.68 | $1.22 | +$0.53 | 47% 10993-12612 (23605) |
Invested
$790.78
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$469.22
Record
33%
1167-2395 (3562)
Invested
$1,445.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$223.03
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
RN1Invested
$699.67
Value
$591.7
PnL
-$107.97
Record
53%
62265-54490 (116755)
Invested
$17.99
Value
$21.59
PnL
+$3.6
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.53
Record
47%
10993-12612 (23605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.