Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.5K
$608.94
88.4¢ → 94.2¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4850h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 93.1¢ | $614.78 | $2.4K | +$567.01 | 68% 330-156 (486) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 80.1¢ | $1.3K | $827.6 | -$23.49 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 82¢ | $157.05 | $185.4 | +$28.35 | 72% 1533-585 (2118) |
 XieGuangKun<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $49 | $92.7 | +$47.6 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
SA sansui1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $12.68 | $2.16 | -$10.52 | 52% 38-35 (73) |
alanhuttonInvested
$614.78
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$567.01
Record
68%
330-156 (486)
Invested
$1,327.95
Value
$827.6
PnL
-$23.49
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
Invested
$157.05
Value
$185.4
PnL
+$28.35
Record
72%
1533-585 (2118)
XieGuangKun<$100Invested
$49
Value
$92.7
PnL
+$47.6
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$10.52
Record
52%
38-35 (73)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.